Doston, ek baat dhyaan se yaad rakhiyega, jab bhi koi insaan ya company, kisi bhi concept ya financial instrument ko ye bolkar introduce karta hai ki ye ek bahut hi complex mechanism hai jo samajhne ke liye time lagega, tab jaan lijiye ki wo ya to kuch bahut fayde wali baat nahi bol raha hai, ya tokahi kuch garbar hai. Financial Derivatives ek aisa segment hai jo complex products se bhare hue hain. Aaj ke video me main wo gyaan nahi dunga jo freely and readily available hai online. Main wo bataunga jo aapko nahi pata, ki derivatives kyun exist karta hai, kisko sabse zyada fayda hota hai derivatives segment me trade karne ke liye, aur kya ye poora segement hi speculation ke upar dependant hai? Aur kya yahi responsible hai unrealistic economical bubble create karne ke peeche? Ye saari baatein, asaan language me samjhaunga, taaki aap bhi agar chahe, to derivative market me invest kar sake.
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Derivatives kaha se aaya?
Samajh lijiye koi trader ko sona kharidna tha, wo dukaan me gaya, dekha per gram ka bhaav 30k hai. Ab usne socha ke 20 din baad shayad ye price 30.2k se zyada ho sakta hai. To usne sone ke trader ke saath contract kiya, ke 20 din baad, wo sona, 30.2k per gram ke rate me kharida. Iske liye usne trader ko thoda sa advance diya. Agar usko 10Gram kharidna tha, matlab 302000 rs dene the, to wo uska 5% advance payment karke apna contract banaya. mat lab sirf 6040 rs me usne ek contract banaya. Ab 20 din baad, agar prices 30.200 per gram ke upar gaya, to usko fayda hoga, aur agar 30,200 per gram ke niche gaya, to usko loss - ayah par jo sona khareedne gaya hai, uski loss ya profit ke baare me baat kar rahe hain. Matlab price fluctuation ke upar bet karke paisa kamana, isme buyer ne kiya kuch nahi, khli speculate kiya hai ki price kis taraf jayega, kitna jayega, aur us speculation ke sahi ya galat hone par hi profit ya loss hoga. Isko Over The Counter, yaani OTC Forward Contract kehte hain. Matlab, koi bhi jaake kisi bhi counter se, is tarah ka deal kar sakta hai. Jo start me 5% payment karke 100% booking kiya gaya, wo leverage hai, yaani buyer ko poora paisa contract ke time par pay nahi karna hai, ek fraction hi bas pay karna hai, taki uska loss agar hua, to wo limit ke andar rahega. Ye forward contract ka basic funda hai.
Govt, exchange, regulation and products
Ab aap puchenge, baat chal rahi thi sone ke trader aur buyer ke beech me, to sarkar kaha se aayi, exchange kaise aaya? Seedhi baat hai, agar desh me koi bhi transaction kahi bhi hoga, to desh ke sarkar ko uska hissa milta hai, yaani tax. Isliye Forward COntract ko standardize karne ke liye, exchange ke through saare forward contracts ko operate kiya gaya, 2000 me Indian Govt. ne Commodity Exchange banakar derivatives trading ko permission diya.
Ab samajh te hain, forward contract kaise bana Future and Options, kya farak hai inme. Futures Contract ka matlab hai ki wo Exchange me trade kiya jaa sakta hai, forward contract khali over the counter sell hota hai. Future contracts me daily settlements hota hai, forward contract, expiration pe settlements hota hai. Options ka matlab hota hai ki agar buyer ne kuch paise deke ek call option liya, matlab 3 mahine ke baad sone ka bhaav per gram 30.2k hoga, to usko call option bolte hain. Target meet karne ke baad Buyer ke choice ke upar hota hai ki wo usko khareede ya nahi. Similarly, wo agar ye option leta hai ki 3 mahine ke baad gold price agar 29.8k se niche jayega, to wo not to buy option ka istemaal karega. Isko put option kehte hain.
Aapke dimaag me abhi ye baat aa rahi hogi ki financial transactions ka matlab hota hai ki mere paas product hai, main use bechunga to mere pass paisa aayega. Yani jiske paas product hai wo kamayega, jisko product chahiye, wo paisa dega. Isme third party kaha se aagayi? Is baat ko samajhne ke liye Investment bankers and mathematics me PHD holders ke paas jaane ki koi zaroorat nahi. Kyun ki wo aapko bolenge ki ye itna complex hai, jo aapko samajh nahi aayega.
Iska seedha translation hai ki mathematics me jaise kayi tareeke ke operation hote hain, plus,minus, multiply, division, usko chor kar bhi hai derivative yaani differentials and integration, jo calculus ka hissa hai. In saare concepts ko financial market me lagakar kuch aise products banaye gaye the, 21st century ke beginning me, jin products ke zariye investment bankers ke haathon bahut sara paisa aur power aa gaya. Paisa kaise aaya? In financial products ke zariye. Kyun ki investment bankers hi in financial products ke speculation and distribution me sabse zyada active role play karte hain.
2008 Financial crash
Complex derivative based products ka matlab ye nahi hai ki wo fradulent hai ya fir unme invest karna sahi nahi hai. Agar sahi rules and regulations follow kiya jaye, to FNO ek bahut accha money making opportunity hai investors ke liye. Kyun ki commodities ke prices natural reasons se fluctuate karte hain. Ye ek tareeke ka gambling hi hua, jisme aap careful research se guess karte hain ki price upar hoga ya niche. Lekin agar is gambling ke khel me natural elements ko hata diya jaye, agar regulations ko hata diya jaye, to investment banks jaise controlling authority kis tareeke se fayda uthati hai, iska example hai 2008 financial crash. Yaha par housing sector me diye jaa rahe loans ko CDO (Collateral Debt Obligation) naam ke coplex derivative ke saath package kar diya gaya, aur iske saath kayi sare aur loans jod diye gaye. Isko Lending banks ne becha investment banks ko, investment banks ne in CDOs ko insure kiya AIG company ke zariye, aur in CDOs ko investors ke directly bech diya, matlab hone loan ke payments se investors ko payment milna tha. Lekin investment banks ne apne hi CDOs ke fail hone par Futures contract lagaya. Accountability chale jaane ke wajah se kachre ke bhaav me home loans diye gaye, housing prices badhte rahe, aur ek ke baad ek loan defaulter list me jaata gaya. Jaise hi loans kharab ho gaye, waise hi CDOs se return aana band ho gaya investors ko, aur losses bahdne chalu hai. In sab future contracts me margin bahut zyada rehta hia, isiliye jaise hi thoda sa market gira, lehman Brother, Merryl Lynch jaise companies fatafat bankrupt ho gayi, kyun unka liquidity poora gayab ho gaya. In banks ko government ne tax payers ka paisa dekar bail out iya, public ka paisa kharab hua, employment chala gaya, duniya recession me gayi jiska impact aaj bhi sabko mehssos ho raha hai. Lekin maze ki baat ye hai ki investment banks ke ceo and managers billions kamake, settle ho gaye, aur wo aaj bhi un hi banks ke saath jude hue hain, aur operations chalahai.
Kya current economy bhi bubble hai? Kya crash hoga?
Koi bhi financial product apne aap se kharab nahi hota, regulations and accountability ke zariye usko stable banaya jaata hai. Agar aap, aaj ka market dekhein, to aap dekhiyega ki share market constantly upar jaa raha hai, naye levels ko breach kar raha hai. Lekin employment nahi hai, heavy industries nahi hai, housing market me prices badh rahe hain, aaj bhi, logo ka income badha nahi hai pichle 10 saal me, lekin housing pries badh chuka hai 3 times. Ye sab ishara karte hain aane waale dino me ek impending crash ka, jo shayad 2008 se bhi bhayanak ho, jisme shayad puri buniya ki economy hi doob jaye. Iska naya trend aapko dekhne ko milega IPOke launch me. Itne saare IPOs aa rahe hain, shayad liquidity raise karne ka yahi ek rasta reh gaya hai, lekin ye liquidity agar company ke operations me na jaakar, promoters ke bank me jaa rahe hai, to samajh lijiye ki company ke owenrs ke doobti naiyaan se kinara karne ka faisla le liya hai. Isko promoter exit bhi kaha jaata hai, sab jagah nahi, magar bahut sare IPOs ke case me, promoters apna share offload kar rahe hain, jo paisa mil raha hai usko bank me daal kar retire kar rahe hain, public un shares ko bhukhe insaan ki tarah kha rahi hai aur wait kar rahi hai ki kab ye shares aur badhega. Lekin kya ye sahi direction hai? Kya in sab companies, apne operational procedures ko robust bana rahe hain taaki aane waale 1 sal me profit aaye? Ya fir ye bhi investment bankers ki tarah, apna salary package badhakar, incentives pe khel kar, apna bank balance bhari karke nikal ne ka plan kar rahe hain? Kya sarkar ne regulations dheele kiya hain? Kyun PSBs and PSUs ko becha jaa raha hai? Ye bhi ek tareeke ka deregulation hai, jaha par chote banks ko bade bade banks acquire karenge, taaki unko speculation karne ke liye aur zyada capital mil paye. Is capital me retirement funds ho sakte hai, pension funds ho sakte hain, baat tab aur bhi serious ho sakti hai jab sarkar apne employees ke retirement funds ko bhi is speculation me daal de. Kya aisa hone waala hai? Khabar pe dhyan dijiye, khabar banane wale pe nazar rakhiye, tabhi aap aane wale dino me aise crash se bach sakte hain.