Will Market Crash again? Kya hai indicators?
Aaj kal sab log sirf ek hi baat kar rahe hain, kya market crash hoga? Agar hoga to kab hoga? Aur is baar kitna bada crash hoga? Main koi sadhu sant nahi jo future dekh ke ye haat ki lakeer dekh ke bata du ki market kab aur kaise girega. Lekin haa, mai jo dekh raha hu, usse jo patterns ban rahe hain, unse ye zaroor keh sakta hu ki kya indicators hain market crash ka. Aap ko lag raha hoga ke clickbait video hoga, lekin ekbar sochiye, aapne 2 lakh rs invest kar rakhha hai, aur aapko agar pata ho ko entry aur exit kab karna hai to aap us 2 lakh ka 3 lakh bana sakte hain, aur agar aap aankh band karke, sirf dhamaka hone waale news dekhte rahe, aur ek din, ek dhamaka aapke stocks ke niche ho gaya, to fir barbaad kaun hoga? Isliye main kehta hu kabhi kabhi darr bahut kam ki cheez hoti hai, kyun ki jis baat se darr hai, usi me solution bhi hai. To aaj ke video me main aapko sikhaunga ke market crash se bachna kaise hai, identify kaise karein? Kya kya markers available hain humare paas.
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Market Crash History
1900 se lekar aaj tak duniya me 5 bade crashes hue hain.
1. 1929 - Great Depression - Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 24.8% gira tha. Second world war ke industrial uprising ke baad ye theek hua
2. 1987 Crash - Black Monday keis crash me DJIA 22.6% gira tha, jo 2 saal me recover ho gaya.
3. September 11 2001 Crash - Twin Towers pe hamle ke baad, markets crash hua tha, jo 2 mahine ke andar recover ho gaya
4. 2008 Great Collapse - USA ka housing market ke collapse me DJIA lagbhag 50% gira tha, 2009 ke baad se bull phase me gaya market aur 2020 COrona crash tak market recovery modeme hi tha
5. 2020 Corona Pandemic - Is crash ka reason tha worldwide lockdown and industries shutting down, lekin iske baad recovery bhi fast hua aur saare global markets ne 2020 ka end naye high pe kiya hai.
● The S&P 500 gained 15.6%.
● The Nasdaq gained 43.7%.
● The Dow Jones gained 6.6%.
● Sensex gained 20%
Kya hai indicators of Crash?
Koi bhi company ka stock, tab upar jaata hai jab uska demand badhta hai, volume badhta hai. Lekin usse bhi badi baat hai ki stock upar jaana kab chahiye?
● Jab company ka financials strong ho
● jab growth dikhe
● management reliable ho.
● Cashflow me issure nahi ho
● Credit situation theek ho
Lekin hamesha retail investors, in saare topics ko dhyan me nahi rakh paate. FInancial Influencers bhi apne apne analysis aur reach ke hisaab se alag alag stocks ke movements ko influence karte hain. Ye process me regulation ki kami hai. Isliye kuch hi dino pehle CNBC Awaaz ke ek anchor ko pakda gaya tha malpractices ke wajah se. Wo Anchor, subah subah aake kuch stocks to promote karte the. Aur unki maa ke naam ki investment company, unhi stocks pe, ek din pehle position le chuki hoti. Ab bheed un stocks pe hoga to fayda seedha anchor ke bank account me jayega. Ye raha ek incident jo saamne aaya hai. Aise kitne hazar log alag alag tareeke se market ko manipulate aur influence kar rahe honge ye hume pata bhi nahi hai. Isliye crash indicator ke hisab se, kabhi bhi kisi ki baaton ko andhe ki tarah nahi maan na hai. Maine jo pointers bataye hain, unko khud study kijiye, aur aap jaan jayenge ke kaunsi company kitne paani me hai. Ye saare information, public domain me available hai, Moneycontrol, ya investopedia jaise koi bhi website me jaiye aur in records ko check kijiye, before investing in any stock.
Ab raha indicators of crash.
1. Jab bhi koi market rise kar raha hai, magar industry ka inherent wealth generation doubtful hai, tab samajh lena chahiye ki wo manufactured growth hai, organic nahi hai.
2. Example ke hisaab se, koi company achanak trend hone lagi, lekin nahi uska koi merger ka news aaya hai, nahi quarterly results aaya hai, nahi uska koi fund generation hua hai, matlab kahi pe operator play jaisa kuch ho raha hai jo us stock ko impact kar raha hai
3. Quarterly results ke time par thoda sa idhar udhar hamesha hota hai, lekin usse thoda loss hoga, market crash nahi hoga, market ko drive karne waale bade haathi jaise - RIL, HDFC, TCS, Infosys etc, in sab ka inherent wealth generation jab tak sahi hai, tab tak bahut bada crash hone ka chances kam hai.
Kya 2021 me market crash hoga?
Ye bahut bada sawaal hai, iska jawab bhi thoda elaborate hain, dhyan se suniye.
1. 2021 Indian sector me IPOs ka saal hai. Bahut saare naye IPos aane waale hai. Inme financial institutions hai, tech companies hai, gaming companies hai, jewellers bhi hain.
2. IPO ke objective aur company ke core domain me dhyan dijiye.
3. Agar domain area digital ya tech related hua, to wo ek accha IPO ho sakta hai, kyun ki pandemic ke baad digital companies me growth ka bahut bada opportunity hoga.
4. IPO issue ka objective agar promoter ka debt chukana hai, to wo ek red flag hona chahiye. Kyun ki IPO se aane waala paisa promoter apna debt chukane me lagayega, to company ke finances me koi asar nahi aayega, aur company agar profitable nahi hai, to iska direct matlab ye hai ki public me company laane ke baad promoter shayad apna shares offload karne exit strategy plan kar raha hoga. Ye ek red flag hona chaiye investors ke liye.
Maine pehle bhi kaha hai ki Indian market ko chalane waala bada player RIl hai, TCS, HDFC, Infosys jaise bade kuch stocks hai. Ab agar aane waale quarter me,
Jio ka profit kam hua,
RIL ka petro refinery business se aane waala profit kam hua
HDFC bank kisi wajah se loss me gaya
Infosys ka kuch wajah se bada loss hota dikha
Indian government ke borrowings bahut badh gaye
To ye saare markers honge ap sabke liye, jab aap alert ho sakte ho, impending crash se. Lekin tab tak panicked hone kikoi zaroorat nahi hai. Indian government ne kaafi acche measures liye hain economy ko revive karne ke liye. Koi nahi chahta ki recession aaye, logon kasavings chala jaye, aapko apna sentiment aur dimaag dono ko control me rakhna hai, aur ek smart investor bann na hai.