Friends , this article was written by Mr.Sam, he is a Member in one of my Investor WhatsApp Group, Please read the article it was very eye opener and helps us to invest our hard earned money in future growth oriented stocks. I copied, edited and pasted here:
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With all that is going on in digital platforms, 5G, Reliance Jio, the following articles should provide interesting background material. I wrote them in Sep 2019. By the way they are no suggestions to invest in anything related to Reliance. Pls do your own independent research before investing.
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION - 5G (1)
Mahan an American Naval strategist argued that the national prosperity and power of a country depended on the control of the world’s sea lanes. He wrote whoever * rules the waves rules the world * During World War One his writings influenced the Germans, French and Japanese.
Though the above-mentioned countries did not exhibit great sea authority, if you go back in history the great nations and colony builders all had great knowledge of the waves. You can study about the Greeks, Romans, Dutch and the British who became great nations, until the Americans took control of the Oceans with the largest number of aircraft carriers. The Chinese with their largest navy is catching up to the Americans.
But there is a different type of waves the Americans and Chinese are racing and aiming for supremacy. The nation that controls the this will lead the world for the millennium.
The US and China are locked in a winner take - all economic struggle. We are not talking about the ongoing trade negotiations. It is something else. Whoever wins will be the economic powerhouse of the next many decades. The stakes are that high. It is the air waves.
Let me explain.
Last year we almost saw a merger between technology firms Broadcom and Qualcomm. Had it gone through; it would have been the largest tech deal to date.
Broadcom had been pursuing Qualcomm since Nov 2017. It initially offered an unsolicited bid of $ 103 bio to acquire controlling interest of Qualcomm. Qualcomm resisted. So, Broadcom took another route.
It initiated a hostile takeover of Qualcomm. That is when the acquiring company attempts to purchase a controlling interest in the company directly from shareholders. Very often this means offering to buy shares at a premium.
At $ 117 billion, the new bid for Qualcomm would have been the largest technology merger in history.
But then President Trump stepped in to block the merger.
The president said that “credible evidence “suggested that the takeover would pose a risk to US national security. The official details are classified. But we know why the White House took this unprecedented step.
At the heart of the President ‘s decision to block the merger is fifth - generation (5G) wireless technology.
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION - 5G (2)
When you connect to the Internet on your computer, smartphone or smart TV, a vast physical communications infrastructure makes the connection possible. Over the years, the wireless networks and the infrastructure that supports them - have evolved.
Since 1980s with the introduction of 1G, a new G has been introduced every 10 years. If you look back it is amazing how the handset has evolved. If you are old enough, we can all remember the brick sized cell phones like the one Gordon Gekko used in the movie
“Wall Street “.
From then on, the phones continued to provide faster download speeds and more applications. It continued to get smaller as well with better designs and make a fashion statement. The current G we have is 4G which went live around 2011.
Very soon we will be shifting to the fifth generation of wireless networks - 5G. It will represent the largest leap in wireless technology to date.
The current 4G network has not lived up to its expectations. The developers who built the network thought it would deliver average download speeds of 100 megabits per second (Mbps). But in reality, many see much lower speeds.
Currently the US has an average download speed of about 16 Mbps with LTE (long term evolution) connections. According to a 2018 Open Signal report the US is in 62nd place, behind Romania (at 28 Mbps). Even Dracula has internet speeds faster than most Americans.
But with 5G, the peak speed should jump to 10 gigabits per second (Gbps).
One gigabit is 1000 megabits. So, at peak speed, 5G will be 1000 times faster than the average 4G connection we have today.
Even if we assume that average 5G speeds will be just 10 pct. of their potential, we are still looking at 1000 Mbps. That means the average 5G will be 100 times faster than what we have today.
With that kind of speed, you will be able to download a two-hour movie in 10 seconds.
Technologies like self-driving cars, virtual reality and many other new applications will all operate over high- speed 5G connections. The applications are endless.
5G will be a game changer because of all the new technological innovations it will bring about.
It will be responsible for over $ 12 trillion worth of new goods and services by 2035 for the US. That is about 70 % of America’s total GDP in 2018.
Now we can get to grips with why the government considers the completion of 5G a matter of national security.
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION- 5G (3)
Countries that lead the way in deploying the 5G networks will have a competitive economic advantage over other countries.
The technology companies in these “first mover “countries will be the first to develop the hardware and software enabling these 5G services.
Right now, the US fear is that China will set the 5G precedent.
This is where Huawei comes in. This huge Chinese company supplies the infrastructure and support for more than half of the 4G networks around the world.
Suspicions abounded for years about the company using its technology to spy on US network traffic. Tensions reached new highs in 2018, and they got banned for a time in US and several other western markets for spying concerns.
The US sees it as imperative and are adamant that US wireless networks are built out quickly with US and European technology to ensure that the country’s networks are less likely to fall victim to foreign espionage.
This is the main reason Trump administration blocked the Broadcom / Qualcomm merger.
While Broadcom stated its intention to bring most of its business back to the US, the bulk of the business is still based in Singapore.
And while Singapore is its own country, it is heavily controlled by Chinese Singaporeans.
The concern was that Broadcom would force Qualcomm to cut back on its research and development into 5G, letting Huawei fill the void and making US wireless networks vulnerable to cyberspying.
But there is more to it. In the summer of 2018, Boston based, Israeli cyber security firm Cybereason discovered something disturbing. The company exposed a massive international espionage campaign that had hacked into at least 10 major wireless carriers. It was something right out of a spy movie. The hackers wanted to track around 20 high- profile political and military figures including monitoring their phone calls, texts and physical locations. Based on the data it appeared to be a nation - state attack by China.
All this info was revealed to key US government officials by Cybereason around the same time they started banning 5G tech and networking equipment from China’s Huawei and ZTE. This is the main reason president Trump has pushed the American wireless carrier companies to build out its own national 5G network.
In April Trump said “The race to 5G is a race America must win, and it is a race, frankly that out great companies are now involved in. We have given them the incentive they need. It’s a race that we will win “.
And for America winning this 5G race could be a matter of national security.
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION- 5G (4)
As the 5G build- out swings into high gear, there is a lot of disinformation being circulated in the markets. With more fake news than real news in the markets, and the disability of most average person to discern what is fake and what is real, it becomes extremely confusing.
There are lot of talks that 5G poses serious health risks. But it is not true. And research supports that. Many of these health concerns arose during the emergence of 4G too. And yet the problems failed to materialize.
Mobile phones emit radio frequency radiation, or radio waves, which are a form of non- ionizing radiation. This kind of radiation is normal, and it is all around us. Non- ionizing radiation only has enough energy to excite a molecule, and the by product is merely heat.
Ionizing radiation, by contrast, is higher frequency and can be severe health hazard. It can cause radiation sickness, burns, cancer and even genetic damage. It is the kind of radiation we find in using nuclear power.
A study in Denmark analysed the records of about 360,000 mobile phone subscribers with brain tumour incidence data from the Danish Cancer Registry. The analysis found no association between cell phone use and the incidence of glioma, meningioma, or acoustic neuroma. It is important to note that all 5G enabled smartphones will meet the safety standards set by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which is informed by the FDA.
But where did this idea of dangerous 5G even come from? How did an improvement in our wireless technology generate such anxiety?
Deploying 5G wireless networks is such a competitive advantage that it is become a race between countries to be the first to build out 5G.
Governments around the world recognize that sooner they build out these networks, the sooner they become more competitive as a nation. The absence of these networks would be a severe competitive disadvantage at a national level.
It was only in February of this year; Russia launched its own 5G program. But it is progress on the 5G rollout is far behind the US and China.
That is why RT America (formerly “Russia Today “) aired a segment titled “A Dangerous Experiment on Humanity “. The media piece outlined how 5G is connected to everything from brain cancer, infertility and even Alzheimer’s with no scientific support.
Bear in mind RT is funded by the Russian government. And we already know that the Russian government has very sophisticated and highly structured programs to mingle in US affairs and influence public thinking. RT is widely considered as a propaganda machine to support Russian interests.
And what better way to slow down American and Chinese 5G rollout and give Russia time to catch up than to spread misinformation and doubt about the safety of technology?
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION- 5G (5)
This is part 5 of our discussion on 5G. We have come a long way. I think it will take one or two more reports before we conclude this. So please bear with me.
If you have a smart phone in your hand it is most likely you are using 4G. About once every ten years the world goes through a major wireless infrastructure build out.
In the 1990s it was second - generation (2G) technology. In the 2000s it was third - generation (3G) technology. And in the 2010s, it has been fourth - generation (4) wireless technology.
4G, though had its own problems it led to an explosion in mobile data usage. It enabled companies like Uber, Snapchat, Google Maps, Facebook Messenger, and WhatsApp to become regular parts of our daily life.
Deployed in the 2010s, 4G had a significant increase in data bandwidth.
It enabled internet browsing and streaming of high - quality video as well as voice over IP technology ( basically free phone calls anywhere in the world using services like Skype , hangouts , WhatsApp or any kind of messaging application- except UAE -sad ) .
Most of us cannot imagine our lives now without these now “basic “features at our fingertips.
Ride - hailing companies like Uber and Lyft were both enabled by the deployment of 4G networks. 3G wireless networks simply were not fast enough or could not locate a user with enough accuracy for ride - hailing platforms to be viable.
Facebook is another great example. Did you know more than 75 % of Facebook traffic is over a mobile device? Facebook ‘s IPO was almost timed with 4G becoming active around the world.
Without the current 4G networks, these companies either would not exist or would be a fraction of the size they are today.
It would have been like having a Jag in a jungle. A jag will not make much headway in a jungle but on a well paved road it will be as smooth as silk and as fast as you can imagine.
We will see the same dynamic play with the 5G networks. But remember average 5G speeds will be 100 times faster. Just think about it. The depth of technological upgrade that we will experience in the next five to ten years will be bigger than anything that we have seen since the birth of Jesus Christ. That is a big statement.
Remember I mentioned at the beginning 5G is expected to unleash over $ 12 trillion wealth over the coming years. That is equal to the third biggest economy in the world. Currently US is number one at 20 trillion and China at 13 trillion.
During the 4G phase, individual stocks soared 870%, 1750% and even 3200 %. So would imagine during the 5G boom some niche stocks could soar even higher with time.
In the next coming reports, we will talk about how we can monetize these opportunities.
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION- 5G (6)
Huawei is a massive company. The outside world suspects that they are sponsored by the Chinese government and it could be true. They are banned in many countries for a reason. They are a predatory company. What I mean is they want to kill their competition.
When it comes to 5G they are a one stop shop. Their research centres are very secretive. Watch the below video that should give you some understanding of their operation. Let me warn you the video is just over 12 minutes.
Currently they are very dependent on computer chips from US companies like Intel and AMD. They anticipated that the trade dispute with US could get ugly and built up a massive inventory that could last for almost two years of their requirements.
Very recently they announced a key product to support China ‘s ambition to become the dominant world leader in Artificial intelligence by 2030. Just 11 years from now.
We can think of this tech giant as combination of Sweden ‘s Ericsson and the US’s Cisco system along with the smartphone division of Apple. It is really massive.
It has antennas and transmission equipment for wireless networks. And it has information technology routing equipment similar to Cisco’s ( in fact , Huawei’s internet routers have literally contained copies of Cisco technology and they had gotten in trouble in the past for simply appropriating the code and installing it on its hardware. ) . They do not operate by the western ethical standards.
It also happens to make mobile phones. Huawei has fallen under deep suspicion over the past year. Its internet routing equipment was even used to spy on US entities. Data traffic was routed from the US to China before being sent where it needed to go.
Incidents like this are one reason President Trump banned government departments from using Huawei ‘s products.
But these bans are not slowing them down. Huawei just launched its own artificial intelligence (AI) chip. It is called the Ascend 910. And it is the first high end semiconductor customized for AI that Huawei has developed. It is claiming this is the most powerful AI processor on the planet.
Of course, no independent body has verified this, or the world has seen the chip.
But the timing of the launch could not have been better for them. If the trade war escalates US companies could be banned from doing business with Huawei and even European semi-conductor manufacturers may join the ban. Without access to world class AI chips their competitiveness could be compromised.
So, this is a smart move on their part considering the politics at hand.
https://youtu.be/4ak-CxioSw8
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION- 5G (7)
In one of my previous reports in this series, I mentioned that you will see such life changing technological advances in the next five or ten years that you have not seen in the last 2000 years.
How can I say that? It is because the depth of research and development that is going on in various aspects of technology is something our human mind cannot comprehend.
We will see it through machine learning and deep learning in artificial intelligence, growth in augmented reality, virtual reality, self-driving cars, IOT (Internet of things) CRISPR (genetic editing technology). Not sure if I missed some major ones. All these are culminating while will revolutionize the way we live and die.
I think the two major technological developments that will aid the above technologies to come on stream and function smoothly will be 5G and Blockchain. In the next series of special reports will try to write on block chain and Artificial intelligence.
Now let us get to the crux of the issue. When do we start using 5G and when should we buy our next smart phone? I think there are literally billions of smartphone users asking themselves this very question right now.
But more and more people are holding on to their phones longer and it is clear from the average smartphone replacement cycle that chart that I saw recently.
In 2007, when the first iPhone was released, it was common to replace your smartphone every 19 months. After all, the new versions were exponentially better than the old models. They were too compelling to pass up.
Today, smartphone users are holding on to their devices for nearly three years before they upgrade. The reason is simple.
The newer models just are not that much better than the older ones. Maybe they have a better camera, a slightly faster processor or something as simple as a new colour or look. But it is just not worth the cost to upgrade.
And I suspect this is the reason you have not upgraded too. But 5G represents an exceptional leap in network speeds. Remember average speeds will be 100 times faster than 4G networks. And none of the current 4G models will be able to connect to the 5G networks. Every smartphone on this planet, think 3.3 bio of them, will have to be upgraded.
There are a bunch of non- Apple 5G - enabled handsets already available around the world, but if you are an Apple user my suggestion is that you should wait.
Unfortunately, we will have to wait until same time next year (2020) for the 5G -enabled iPhones to be available. These will be expensive, at least as expensive as the latest models.
I prefer an Apple to an Android product. There are two important reasons.
First Android is a Google product, which means that Google monitors anyone using an Android- based phone. Every website you visit, your email, and every application that you use is monitored, packaged up, and sold for advertising purposes.
Secondly the iPhone iOS is far more secure than Android’s system, though they are coming under a lot of fire for some hackers breaching into Safari the default web browser on Apple devices.
If you are still impatient and want to use the 5G network as it is enabled in many places , you can use the Android 5G enabled phone which will work perfectly over 4G networks and when you are in the 5G network coverage , you can enjoy the super- fast speeds of 5G .
THE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY OR REVOLUTION- 5G (8)
This should be the last piece in this series on 5G. Thank you for sticking with me. I have been alluding 5G represents an exponential leap in wireless network technology. It will be one of the biggest investment opportunities this decade.
As I mentioned before during the 4G era, individual stocks soared 870 %, 1745 % and even 3200%. And I think 5G should provide even bigger opportunities for individual stocks.
Opportunities should come in three phases:
1) infrastructure. 2) Devices. 3) services. Currently we are mainly at the infrastructure phase. The physical network is being build out (towers, fibre- optic networks) and equipment (antennas, base stations, routers and switches).
5G will be completely different from 4G architecture. It uses what is called “small cell architecture “which requires far more cell phone tower locations. In most of the major US cities you can already see it.
Believe there are about 200,000 4G towers scattered around US but when the 5G is fully constructed there will be more than one million cell phone towers to support the higher bandwidth, higher speeds and new services delivered over 5G. They are going live on a weekly and even daily basis. The same process is happening in all developed and developing countries. In the Middle East UAE and Kuwait are ahead of many other neighbouring countries.
And that leads us to phase two. It involves the adoption of wireless devices (smartphones, tablets, home routers etc) that run on the new 5G network and the components that go inside them. Several smart phone manufacturers debuted them
5-G enabled devices at the GSMA Mobile World Congress this February in Barcelona.
Huawei, Samsung, LG, Xiaomi have all introduced smartphones that work on 5G networks. As usual when it comes to launching a new technology Apple is late to the party. Probably for good reasons they know better. Apple’s 5G model will be enabled only in the fall of 2020.
Believe there are 855 5G deployments worldwide. Just read Gatwick airport is now 5G enabled.
The coverage will not always be perfect but if you are getting something 100 times better than what you are having now, you can imagine what that is.
By the end of 2020, we will wonder how we ever survived without 5G speeds.
Phase three will focus on services - companies deploying services that take advantage of the 5G network. There will be many.
5G will have incredible performance gains in speed and radically reduced latency. The 5G wireless networks will enable services that are just not possible over current 3G or 4G networks.
Very soon we will see fleets of self-driving cars and remotely controlled semi-trucks rolling down the highway.
Surgeons will operate on patients thousands of miles away by controlling robotic arms.
Industries will be disrupted. Entirely new ones will be launched. And I am sure fortunes will be made. The applications are endless.
There is no better time for technology as it is now. Some of the changes and developments you see will surprise you more than science fiction movies.
I hope and trust that I have opened your minds to a new world of power in technology. I also believe many of you have enjoyed reading this as much as I have enjoyed writing It.
Will pick on another theme soon and my mind is on block chain or AI.
5G is not evolutionary but revolutionary.
Adios!!!